最近の黒田日銀の金融政策に関して、いろいろな方がいろいろなことを言っていますが、なかでも視点が面白いと思ったのは、楽天証券経済研究所の客員研究員・山崎元氏のロイターに掲載されたインタビューです。
この記事の中で、山崎さんは、
「資産バブルは長期的には維持できないような資産価格の大規模な高騰現象。物価目標2%達成まで金融緩和が継続されるとみられるが、株価が急騰し、金融引き締めに政策転換をしたくてもできない状況がないとは言えない。1985年のプラザ合意以降、1989年にかけての株高局面と構図が似ているだけに、バブル的な状況も想定しておく必要がある」
とおっしゃっています。
なるほど、と思います。
資産価格が上昇してバブル的な状態に突入しても、物価上昇率2%が達成できないうちは、日銀は金融引き締めに転換しないかもしれません。
物価上昇率2%はかなり難しいといわれているだけに(黒田総裁は2年といってはいますが)金融緩和期間は、かなり長期にわたる可能性もあります。
80年代後半のバブル期も、資産価格の上昇に比べて、消費者物価指数はそれほど上がっていなかったため、日銀の金融引き締めが後手に回ったことが知られています。
はたして、今回も資産価格のバブル的な上昇は起こるのでしょうか?
そして、もしバブルになったら、そのあとはどうなるのか?
いろいろと考えさせられる指摘ですね。
山崎氏の元記事は長いので、下にリンクをはっておきます。
インタビュー:80年台後半のバブル相場と類似=楽天証券研山崎氏
この記事の中で、山崎さんは、
「資産バブルは長期的には維持できないような資産価格の大規模な高騰現象。物価目標2%達成まで金融緩和が継続されるとみられるが、株価が急騰し、金融引き締めに政策転換をしたくてもできない状況がないとは言えない。1985年のプラザ合意以降、1989年にかけての株高局面と構図が似ているだけに、バブル的な状況も想定しておく必要がある」
とおっしゃっています。
なるほど、と思います。
資産価格が上昇してバブル的な状態に突入しても、物価上昇率2%が達成できないうちは、日銀は金融引き締めに転換しないかもしれません。
物価上昇率2%はかなり難しいといわれているだけに(黒田総裁は2年といってはいますが)金融緩和期間は、かなり長期にわたる可能性もあります。
80年代後半のバブル期も、資産価格の上昇に比べて、消費者物価指数はそれほど上がっていなかったため、日銀の金融引き締めが後手に回ったことが知られています。
はたして、今回も資産価格のバブル的な上昇は起こるのでしょうか?
そして、もしバブルになったら、そのあとはどうなるのか?
いろいろと考えさせられる指摘ですね。
山崎氏の元記事は長いので、下にリンクをはっておきます。
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